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It was an amazing night, except for that one thing Photo by Michael Steele/Getty ImagesYou don’t have to be a number cruncher of Nate Silver’s caliber to know that Monday was a good day for the United States national team. After being eliminated by Ghana at the last two World Cups, the U.S. defeated their biggest bogeymen 2–1 in thrilling fashion. The win came just hours after Portugal was demolished 4–0 by a typically ruthless German squad.
On account of those two results, FiveThirtyEight’s latest statistical projections give the Americans a great shot to advance to the knockout round. Earlier Monday, Silver’s model gave the team a 36.9 percent chance of moving to the second round. Now, the FiveThirtyEight model has completely reversed its projection, giving the USA just a 36.9 percent chance of getting eliminated prior to the round of 16. The reversal of fortune came at expense of Portugal, who is now at the bottom of the group on goal difference and face a 73 percent chance of elimination, and Ghana, which has an 87.6 percent chance of making an early departure.
A wild day at the World Cup, though, shows the problem with applying Silver’s statistical know-how to individual soccer matches. Sports, on a game-by-game basis at least, are not nearly as predictable as elections.
- Who would have guessed, for example, that the U.S. would score one of the fastest goals in World Cup history, with Dempsey marking in the first minute.
- Or that starting striker Jozy Altidore would go down with a hamstring injury that could keep him out of the rest of the tournament.
- Finally, who could have predicted that Portugal would suffer their worst-ever defeat at the World Cup?
- And lose two of their starters to injury?
- And that Portugal’s star center-back Pepe would head-butt a German player and be sent off in disgrace?
Pepe’s red card against Germany means that he will be suspended for the next game against the U.S., improving the American odds even further. Because of the margin of Portugal’s defeat Monday and the importance of goal difference as a tiebreaker, a draw with Cristiano Ronaldo’s team would likely be enough to take the U.S. through to the next round unless something absolutely disastrous happened against Germany in the last game of the group stage.
Despite how Portugal looked Monday, it won’t be easy to get such a result. The Americans had their own issues against Ghana, looking sapped after Altidore went down injured. The U.S. conceded a long-overdue equalizer in the 82nd minute on a lovely strike from André Ayew off of an even lovelier backheel pass from Asamoah Gyan. They were lucky to score the winner four minutes later when 21-year-old substitute defender John Brooks, playing in his first nonfriendly game for the United States, headed home the winner and earned his place among the greats.
The U.S. got the result, and that’s what matters, but it looks like the national team’s defensive and possession woes from pre-tournament friendlies have returned. The team was all too dependent on Ghana’s poor finishing and Tim Howard’s marvelous goalkeeping. From the moment Altidore was taken off of the pitch, Ghana dominated the game. The Black Stars had 59 percent possession to 41 percent, 21 shots to eight, 13 deliveries into the penalty area to six, and 65 dangerous attacks to 22. The last 15 minutes were more even, and the U.S. did come up big when it counted.
But that won’t be enough against even a weakened Portugal. If Altidore misses the next two games, Jürgen Klinsmann might even regret his decision to leave Landon Donovan home.
The likeliest replacements for Altidore are Chris Wondolowski, Aron Jóhannsson, and Julian Green, none of whom will scare any of the United States’ upcoming opponents. The Icelandic-American Jóhannsson disappeared for long stretches of the game against Ghana—according to one analysis, the team only had two touches within 20 yards of Ghana’s goal after Jóhannsson came on. Green—who just turned 19 and is completely untested—is mainly at this World Cup for experience and maybe as part of a deal to get him to play for the United States over his native Germany. Wondolowski is a classic goal poacher and would make more sense as a late substitute than a starter.
The U.S. bench is so thin in the attack that it’s hard to say what Klinsmann should do. Perhaps the best of a bunch of not-so-great options is to play Dempsey as a lone striker and replace Altidore with midfielder Graham Zusi, leaving the likes of Jóhannsson and Wondolowski to come off the bench. (Landon Donovan, we miss you!) But after a night like Monday, maybe it’s too soon to start second-guessing the German coach. Instead, let’s continue to revel in one of the most thrilling nights in U.S. soccer history. The second-guessing can wait a few more hours.
Showing posts with label Portugal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Portugal. Show all posts
Saturday, June 21, 2014
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
U.S. National Team Starts Training in Brazil
SÃO PAULO—U.S. men's soccer coach Jurgen
Klinsmann played down the long distances and muggy climate his team will
have to face at this year's World Cup, saying that American players are
used to both.
The U.S. team will be
based in São Paulo, South America's biggest city, and will travel for
first round matches to the Amazon heartland city of Manaus, as well as
the northeastern coastal cities of Natal and Recife. That means the U.S.
will have to travel some 14,000 kilometers in the first round alone,
the most of any of the 32 teams that will compete in the league play
round of the monthlong event that starts in June.
"We
have the worst travel schedule of all teams," Mr. Klinsmann told
reporters after a brief training session at the training grounds of São
Paulo Futebol Clube, one of the continent's top teams.
Twenty-six
players arrived in Brazil Monday as part of the men's team annual
January training, and Mr. Klinsmann is using the opportunity to get to
know the training center as well as a chance to pick new talent for the
team. The squad is made up of players from Major League Soccer except
for Norway-based Mix Diskerud.
"American
players are used to traveling long distances, but we want to minimize
the problem," he said, mentioning th possibility of traveling between game
sites directly, rather than making the long slog back to São Paulo
between rounds.
After two weeks in São
Paulo, the 26 players head back to Los Angeles for another week of
training. The final group of 23 players Mr. Klinsmann picks will be back
in Brazil in June to prepare for a crucial first match on June 16
against Ghana in Natal, some 1,800 miles northeast of São Paulo.
"We
have to win our first game no matter what," he said. That's because
after Ghana, the U.S. will face Portugal—whose star Cristiano Ronaldo
this week won the prestigious Balon d' Or title as the world's best
player—and then plays soccer powerhouse Germany in the final group
match. Germany clinched second place in 2002 after losing to Brazil, and
came in third place in the following two World Cups.
With such a tough group, it will be a challenge for the U.S. team.
"We
still have a long way to go and we know that, but we are getting better
and hopefully we can prove that in the World Cup," he said.
The
rapid growth of soccer in the U.S. following that country's hosting of
the 1994 World Cup has helped improve the quality of American soccer,
Mr. Klinsmann said, but they are still some years away from ranking with
the best.
"We need to develop better players and better coaches, but that's not going to happen overnight," he said.
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